It’s Primary Season Folks! The 2012 GOP Primaries officially kick off next week in New Hampshire, but for all intents and purposes, it has already kicked off with the Iowa Caucuses.  Michele Bachmann has already dropped out, Perry and Gingrich are mustering their remaining forces for a last stand in the South, and the others have started turning on each other.  Here, now, we have a clearer picture than ever of who is really in the top tier and who is likely to be the nominee in this fractured party.  With that in mind, let us look at how each of them stands right now.

Rick Santorum

            Strengths: With Bachmann bowing out, and Perry and Gingrich down to their last days in the race, the neoconservative/religious right finally has a candidate that they can unite behind.  His victory in Iowa has finally propelled him into the spotlight, and he can pose a major threat to Mitt Romney by uniting the Republican base against him.  Santorum’s strengths are his appeal to the neoconservative foreign policy hawks, social conservatives, and blue collar workers.  Whereas Romney has “corporate fat cat” written all over him (at least in the minds of American blue collar workers) and Paul is so gung-ho on free trade that he seems to be in support of shipping out American jobs, Santorum has won elections in union-heavy districts by actively supporting American manufacturing.  If any candidate has the ability to take away Democratic votes for economic and job-creating reasons (in an election dominated by those concerns), it has to be Rick Santorum.

            Weaknesses: Basically, one needs to only Google “Rick Santorum” to see his biggest problem.  Opposition to his stance on gay-related issues is legion, as is opposition to his stance on abortion (such as the shameless criticism of Alan Colmes regarding Santorum’s handling of the death of his still born son).  His hyper-interventionist foreign policy may also be detrimental to winning an election in a time when many Americans are weary of war, but at the same time, is also helpful to winning votes from the majority of Republicans who strongly oppose the “Blame America First” mentality of Cong. Paul.  (Paul, of course, charges that Santorum is somehow racist for his views about Iran, engaging in the same smearing tactics that he and his supporters decry with regards to the questionable newspaper columns).  His biggest weakness of all, however, is that he just seems like too much of a nice guy to win a national election against a shark like Obama. 

Mitt Romney

            Strengths: Romney really benefited from the Iowa Caucuses.  He showed that he can win (however narrowly) in a socially conservative state in a contest he was supposed to lose.  As a result of this, and his expected double-digit victory in New Hampshire, Romney is clearly the frontrunner at this point, and represents the Bob Dole-John McCain wing of the party. Romney represents the private sector better than any other candidate, and has shown that he might have enough appeal to Northeastern Liberals to pull some key votes away from the Obama campaign.  At this point, it is inconceivable that Romney will not be on the ticket (unless Huntsman pulls off a New Hampshire surprise and goes on to win the nomination).  Romney also comes across as more level-headed and realistic than either Santorum or Paul, a key aspect that could factor heavily in his favor and make independents and moderate liberals more willing to vote in his favor than Obama’s.  Finally, Romney seems like a candidate that has the ability to get people to settle for him.  He doesn’t have the fanatic support that Paul or Obama has, but has enough widespread appeal that conservatives, moderates, and liberals are willing to settle (as SNL said, “nothing says you are settling like Mitt Romney”).  In such a weak GOP field, that is a winning quality. Romney seems primed to win New Hampshire, and could seal the nomination with victories in Florida and South Carolina. 

            Weaknesses: Two words; “flip” and “flop.”  Santorum and Paul are consistent ideologues, but Romney has the same weakness that John Kerry had in ’04, he takes whatever positions will win the race.  In a sense, he is the quintessential politician.  His most glaring case of flip-flopping was with Romneycare, but also with his stances on abortion and gay rights. He also sometimes comes across as an “elitist,” like with his $10,000 bet with Rick Perry in the one debate.  Additionally, although he has enough widespread appeal to make people settle for him, he does not bring a great deal of enthusiasm with his supporters.  Indeed, support for Romney is always lukewarm.  Should he win the nomination, many Republicans will campaign against Obama, but not necessarily in strong favor of Romney

Ron Paul

            Strengths: No candidate has such an energized base of supporters as Cong. Paul.  No other candidate has a small (albeit growing) group of followers that would brave blizzards, volcanoes, tornadoes, and hurricanes (even all at the same time) as Dr. Paul.  That said, his greatest strengths are his organization skills, appeal to the Far Left, leftover hippie generation doves, and his consistency.  In the general election, he may be able to steal some votes from Obama from pacifists, gay rights activists, and marijuana rights activists, all of which have been uncontested bulwarks of the Democratic Party since the days of Franklin Roosevelt.  Although one many not agree with Dr. Paul on everything, one must admit that his stances never change because of prevailing political winds.  Should Paul get the nomination, no candidate will have people working for him harder than they will work for Paul.

            Weaknesses: His supporters are a major strength for him, but they are also a huge liability.  Their support is so fanatical, that it reaches almost totalitarian levels, and his supporters have already started to go rogue and harm his campaign, as with the recent ad that some made against Jon Huntsman, calling him a “Manchurian Candidate” because of his service as Ambassador to China and his adoption of Chinese babies.  Even worse, some of these are prone to treat any other candidate, or person who disagrees with them in the slightest, as representing absolute evil. Beyond his supporters, though, Paul has several other major obstacles to overcome.  Chief among these obstacles is Paul, himself.  He is a weak debater, prone to scowl throughout the debates and go off on semi-conspiratorial rants that always make him look bad.  Paul’s campaign is not optimistic, but comes across as being bred from anger (much like Carl Paladino’s gubernatorial campaign in New York).  Also, he will have more difficulty than either Romney or Santorum in securing up the main Republican base- the religious right neoconservatives.  Paul represents the paleoconservative, libertarian wing of the Party, which is far less prominent than the other two wings.  He holds seemingly contradictory stances on abortion, gay rights, and immigration, which may not sit well with a large portion of social conservatives (not to mention his pro-marijuana stance).  Finally, he will need to be able to surmount the fact that any thinking person would realize that his plans to downsize the government are impossible.  Cutting one major bureaucratic department would be a defining achievement of an administration, cutting 5 would require totalitarian powers.  Using the response to Governor Walker’s mere stripping of collective bargaining rights from public sector employees as a litmus test, it is laughable to think that Paul could somehow gut the jobs of thousands of people, even if he reduces his own salary to 1/10 of what it would otherwise be.  This is sad, but it is true.  Paul would not have the power to accomplish what he promises, and it would be foolish to think otherwise.

Jon Huntsman

            Strengths: Huntsman is a true conservative on nearly every issue, but does not have the “crazy” label attached to him, like Santorum, Paul, and Perry all do.  He has extensive foreign policy experience, especially with China, and has a more reasonable foreign policy than Paul or Santorum, who represent the extremes of both ends of the spectrum.  Huntsman has an intellectual aura about him, something that will appeal to independents and many Democrats, and is willing to break with the GOP on issues like climate change (unfortunately) and civil unions for gay couples (something that could really help him win votes from Democrats).  He has an impeccable character, mild manners, and is level-headed.  An examination of his record shows that he is 100% Pro-Life, Pro-Second Amendment, and is completely laissez-faire with regards to the economy.  In short, accurate representation of his record would help him sway the Republican base (much more than either Romney or Paul), yet would also have enough appeal to the moderates and left that he could beat Barack Obama.

            Weaknesses: For some reason, his service as Ambassador to China has counted as a strike against him ever since declaring his campaign.  Instead of it being a significant achievement (and representation of his Washingtonian willingness to transcend politics in favor of service to the nation), many conservatives have been led to believe that it somehow means that he is a political lackey of President Obama.  His other weaknesses are more practical: he simply has a lack of finances, name recognition, and enthusiasm (although that will change if he stays in the race beyond New Hampshire and the Huntsman Daughters become more prominent).  Like Santorum, Huntsman may not be enough of a fighter to defeat a shark like Obama, as he promised a civil campaign when he started, and he has maintained it throughout the nomination process.  The only chinks in his ideological armor are simply his support for equal rights for gay couples (in the form of civil unions) and taking a more so-called “Pro-Science” stance regarding climate change and evolution.  Should he win the nomination, his support would be warmer than support for Romney (from the base of the party), but those two stances may make some less willing to back him.  The only way he would be able to fight this weakness would be by nominating either Rick Santorum, Allen West, Jim DeMint, Rand Paul, or some other Republican that is a social conservative in every sense as his Vice President.

Newt Gingrich:

            Strengths: He still has some appeal to social, fiscal, and foreign policy conservatives, as well as wannabe intellectuals.  He still has some money to spend from his moment in the spotlight, and he is angry.  Gingrich is more or less a cornered and wounded animal, and has nothing to lose by going on the full scale offensive against Mitt Romney.  No one is happier about this fact than Rick Santorum.

            Weaknesses: Newt’s weaknesses are legion.  He still has his checkered personal past to contend with, an inconsistent record on a variety of issues, and an unfavorable overall reputation.  Newt’s spotlight moment as the anti-Romney is over, but he is staking it all on the southern states.  I do not see him returning to the top tier of candidates, but he’ll stick around for a couple more weeks.

Rick Perry

            Strengths: Honestly, the only reason I can see for Perry to stick around is his appeal to southern voters.  Should something happen with Santorum, some may look at Perry again out of desperation.  His only strength is that he still has a considerable war chest to spend.

            Weaknesses: Forgetfulness, weak debating skills, need I go on? Perry is done. 

New Hampshire Predictions

Mitt Romney- New Hampshire is tailor-made for Romney, a Northeastern moderate with a successful record as a governor of a neighboring state.  His New Hampshire victory, however, will only be complete if he destroys Jon Huntsman and Ron Paul.  Anything less than a double-digit victory in New Hampshire would have to be viewed as a cause for concern in the Romney camp. 

Jon Huntsman- Living in New Hampshire throughout the campaigning process has to pay extraordinary dividends for Governor Huntsman, or else he is done.  He does not have to win New Hampshire, but anything less than third is a lethal blow to his campaign.  I think he can post a strong second, much like Santorum in New Hampshire, and possibly gain some more national exposure.  The ideal scenario for him would be to finish within 10% of Romney- a finish that could send shockwaves throughout the Republican Party.  After all, he is a much better compromise candidate than Romney.

Ron Paul- He won’t win New Hampshire, but should finish in second or third. In his place, I would concentrate more on the South, where people are more uncertain about their votes.  No matter how he finishes in New Hampshire, Paul will be around until the Convention. 

Rick Santorum- He should finish ahead of the other social conservatives, but New Hampshire is not Iowa.  Florida and South Carolina promise better results than the Granite State.  If he can pass Paul, and maybe even Huntsman, then New Hampshire is a victory for him.
Newt Gingrich- Although he really isn’t contesting New Hampshire, Newt has more appeal to this state than Perry.  He will finish in 5^th, and hope for better luck in Dixie.

Rick Perry- Perry has also given up on New Hampshire, and it would be a surprise to see him finish in anything but dead last. 

Bottom Line

            The contest is not over yet, but Mitt Romney has the inside track to be the nominee.  Victories in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida will all but end the competition for the nomination.  If Santorum is able to mop up the votes from Gingrich, Perry, and Bachmann, he could pose a strong challenge, especially if he wins the southern contests.  Unlike Cain and the others, Santorum has the advantage of rising at the time when other social conservatives drop out.  He also has the advantage of running in a year when the Republican Party is more fractured than ever before.  Ron Paul staying in the race only helps out Santorum by preventing Romney from getting a clear majority, but also provides Romney with a “sparring partner” of sorts to prepare him for debating Obama.  Paul will continue to stay in the race, probably until the convention, and should not be ignored (especially since it will only cause his worker bees to buzz louder).  Huntsman is the lone remaining dark horse, but time is no longer on his side in the Granite State.  

Front Runners

• Newt Gingrich- I must admit his sudden, meteoric rise in the polls caught me completely off-guard. Until very recently, I could not believe that he stuck around and was still actually running for President.  For the most part, I simply attributed his sticking around as a ploy to try and get an inside track for Veepstakes when Romney wins the nomination.  Regardless, that is in the past now.  I still think Gingrich has a hard time winning the nomination. He has done incredibly well in debates so far, but it is only a matter of time before his contradictions and flip-flops come back to haunt him. He is still the embodiment of everything that movements like the Tea Party were designed to combat- a lifelong Washington insider who embraces any movement and rhetoric that is politically expedient, not to mention has a checkered (at best) past that is still fresh in the minds of many Americans.  It will be interesting to see how he does in Iowa and South Carolina, the two key states for him to steal the nomination from Romney.  The biggest question of all, however, is whether or not Newt is simply the candidate of the moment (as Cain, Bachmann, and Perry all were).  I think he is.
• Mitt Romney- Throughout most of this process, Mitt Romney has consistently polled in the 20-30% rang, even as other candidates rose and fell.  This consistency is likely to win him the nomination, unless he has a major gaffe.  On the other hand, mere complacency could cost him as much as reckless aggressiveness. For instance, it was foolish of him to turn down Newt’s offer a classic Lincoln-Douglas Debate (with Jon Huntsman there, as well), because it makes him look scared of Newt’s debating ability.  Romney can certainly hold his own with Newt, but turning down that offer can only be detrimental to his campaign.  For better or worse, Romney will survive through at least Super Tuesday, when Republicans will have to decide whether to finally settle for Romney or back Ron Paul.  Romney can beat Obama, but only if he can convince the Republican base that he is worthy of their time and effort.

Dark Horses

• Ron Paul- Of the remaining candidates, Paul has the best shot to pull off the upset in Iowa.   If there is a blizzard on January 3^rd, Ron Paul’s supporters will be the only ones willing to endanger their own lives to cast a vote for their demigod.  Additionally, most sources say that he has the best organized campaign in Iowa, and has polled relatively well in the state recently.  Nationally, however, Paul has not risen at all since his campaign began, according to Real Clear Politics.  As I predicted, his cult of supporters would be the most vocal and loyal, but his numbers have not risen about 10%.  That could change, however, if Paul wins Iowa.  An actual victory (beyond the meaningless internet polls that only his supporters find time to take part in) might get people thinking he is actually serious and for real.  Regardless, he will stick around and refuse to concede, possibly until the convention.  The way I see it, his greatest accomplishment in this primary season will be his setting the stage for Rand to run in 4 or 8 years (who is far more popular, and would be much easier for neoconservatives to accept).  By the way, his most recent ad in Iowa, set to the tune and format of a typical commercial for pickup trucks, ranks in the top 5 of most bizarre ads I’ve ever seen for its corniness*.
• Rick Santorum- I am calling him a “dark horse” because he has yet to have his moment in the spotlight and has been campaigning in Iowa like a madman for the last year.  Santorum, the most neoconservative of all of the candidates, has yet to make a fool of himself and could start his surge once Newt begins his decline.  It is likely, however, that his campaign will be over in a month, as he simply has not been able to generate widespread support or energy.
• Jon Huntsman- Huntsman, unlike Santorum, is going all in on New Hampshire.  I still for the life of me cannot figure out why he is consistently in last place.  His record is far more conservative than Newt’s or Romney’s (except for his views on climate change and civil unions, views that would be a major asset in the general election) and he has a reputation as a levelheaded statesman (unlike Perry and Bachmann).  Conservatives, such as George Will, have recently been giving him a second look because of his record and demeanor.  He probably will not win New Hampshire, but if he continues to stick around as others drop out, he may make some real noise.  Even better, Huntsman is slated to have a one-on-one Lincoln-Douglas Debate with Gingrich next week, a debate that will actually seem intelligent compared to the ones that have taken place so far. For the record, I am officially endorsing Jon Huntsman.

Sinking Ships

• Rick Perry- The final nail in his campaign coffin came when he forgot what department he would cut.  His poll numbers had been sinking, but that gaffe pretty much sealed the deal, so to speak.  Since then, he has shown no signs of coming back to life, indeed, adding more nails to the coffin by forgetting the national voting age (telling New Hampshire young voters to vote if they are 21 or older) and the date of the general election in the same sentence!  Furthermore, he has recently released a campaign ad denouncing the repeal of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell that has received pretty much universal scorn.  That cowboy will be back in Texas after the Iowa caucuses, or maybe a little bit later.
• Michele Bachmann- I feel bad for Michele, I really do.  After generating some excitement and enthusiasm for her campaign this summer (following her victory in the Ames Straw Poll), she fell off the radar when Rick Perry entered the race. Since then, she has had sexist questions in debates, blatantly biased news coverage (most notably, the horrid cover of her on Newsweek, labeling her the “Queen of Rage”), and been subjected to traps set by people using their innocent children as political pawns (especially the eight year old son of a lesbian who put her in an impossible situation).  In any case, she has long since passed her peak, unless she gets some kind of a miracle.  Iowa should be the end of the road for her campaign (especially since she is native of Iowa).

Conclusion

            Absent some scandal, Mitt Romney clearly is on path to win the nomination. Newt Gingrich, just like Cain, Perry, and Bachmann, is enjoying a temporary moment at the top, but it is not bound to last.  Santorum, Huntsman, and even Ron Paul, are probably the candidates that should concern Romney the most.  A month is a long time in campaigns, and given the trend that has been happening so far in this primary season, one of those three will probably emerge in the coming weeks after Gingrich says or does something foolish.  Santorum may pull off a surprise in Iowa, just like Mike Huckabee did in 2008, or else he will be done for good.  Huntsman may be the dark horse that ends up commandeering the nomination from Romney, once conservatives get over the fact that he chose to serve his country as Ambassador to China under President Obama (instead of sacrificing the country to win political points for a future Presidential run, as they seem to have wanted him to do).  Ron Paul, well, he will not surrender and his cult will not quit on him.  As SNL said, he is “ideologically pure, and tough as nails.” His supporters would rip out their own eyes at his request, and he will try to ride out the initial storm and feed off of the general discontent with Governor Romney from rank and file Republicans.

*- The Top 5 Craziest Political Ads I Have Ever Seen

1.) LBJ Daisy Ad

2.) Dale Peterson Ad on Behalf of Jon McMillan

3.) Carly Fiorina Demon Sheep

4.) Rick Barber’s Semi-Treasonous Ad

5.) Ron Paul Bark and Truck Ad